Rupert A. C. Croft, Matthew Dailey
We have catalogued and analysed cosmological parameter determinations and
their error bars published between the years 1990 and 2010. Our study focuses
on the number of measurements, their precision and their accuracy. The accuracy
of past measurements is gauged by comparison with the WMAP7 results. The 637
measurements in our study are of 12 different parameters and we place the
techniques used to carry them out into 12 different categories. We find that
the number of published measurements per year in all 12 cases except for the
dark energy equation of state parameter w_0 peaked between 1995 and 2004. Of
the individual techniques, only BAO measurements were still rising in
popularity at the end of the studied time period. The fractional error
associated with most measurements has been declining relatively slowly, with
several parameters, such as the amplitude of mass fluctutations sigma_{8} and
the Hubble constant H_0 remaining close to the 10% precision level for a 10-15
year period. The accuracy of recent parameter measurements is generally what
would be expected given the quoted error bars, although before the year 2000,
the accuracy was significantly worse, consistent with an average underestimate
of the error bars by a factor of ~2. When used as complement to traditional
forecasting techniques, our results suggest that future measurements of
parameters such as fNL, and w_a will have been informed by the gradual
improvment in understanding and treatment of systematic errors and are likely
to be accurate. However, care must be taken to avoid the effects of
confirmation bias, which may be affecting recent measurements of dark energy
parameters. For example, of the 28 measurements of Omega_Lambda in our sample
published since 2003, only 2 are more than 1 sigma from the WMAP results. Wider
use of blind analyses in cosmology could help to avoid this.
View original:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3108
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