1202.1503 (Leszek Roszkowski et al.)

Bayesian Implications of Current LHC Supersymmetry and Dark Matter Detection Searches for the Constrained MSSM    [PDF]

Leszek Roszkowski, Enrico Maria Sessolo, Yue-Lin Sming Tsai

We investigate the impact of recent limits from LHC searches for supersymmetry and from direct and indirect searches for dark matter on global Bayesian inferences of the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. In particular we apply recent exclusion limits from the CMS $\alpha_T$ analysis of 1.1 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, current direct detection dark matter limit from XENON100, as well as recent experimental constraints on $\gamma$-ray fluxes from dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies of the Milky Way from the FermiLAT satellite, in addition to updated values for other non-LHC experimental constraints. We extend the range of scanned parameters to include a significant fraction of the focus point/hyperbolic branch region. While we confirm earlier conclusions that at present LHC limits provide the strongest constraints on the model's parameters, we also find that the incidence of the recent exclusion limits from FermiLAT and XENON100 on the posterior pdf is strongly dependent on assumptions about theoretical uncertainties. On the other hand, when these uncertainties are not treated in a conservative way, the new bounds from indirect detection have the power to significantly constrain the focus point/hyperbolic branch region. Their effect is then comparable, if not stronger, to that from XENON100. We further analyze the effects of one-year projected sensitivities on a neutrino flux from the Sun in the 86-string IceCube+DeepCore configuration at the South Pole. We show that data on neutrinos from the Sun, expected for the next few months at IceCube and DeepCore, has the potential to further constrain the same region of parameter space, and can yield additional investigating power for the model.

View original: http://arxiv.org/abs/1202.1503