N. V. Karpenka, M. C. March, F. Feroz, M. P. Hobson
A hierarchical Bayesian method is applied to the analysis of Type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) observations to constrain the properties of the dark matter haloes of galaxies along the SNIa lines-of-sight via their gravitational lensing effect. The full joint posterior distribution of the dark matter halo parameters is explored using the nested sampling algorithm {\sc MultiNest}, which also efficiently calculates the Bayesian evidence, thereby facilitating robust model comparison. We first demonstrate the capabilities of the method by applying it to realistic simulated SNIa data, based on the real 3-year data release from the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS3). Assuming typical values for the halo parameters in our simulations, we find that a catalogue analogous to the existing SNLS3 data set is incapable of detecting the lensing signal, but a catalogue containing approximately three times as many SNIa does produce robust and accurate parameter constraints and model selection results for two halo models: a truncated singular isothermal sphere (SIS) and a Navarro--Frenk--White (NFW) profile, thereby validating our analysis methodology. In the analysis of the real SNLS3 data, contrary to previous studies, we obtain only a very marginal detection of a lensing signal and weak constraints on the halo parameters for the truncated SIS model, although these constraints are tighter than those obtained from the equivalent simulated SNIa data set. This difference is driven by a preferred value of $\eta \approx 1$ in the assumed scaling-law $\sigma \propto L^\eta$ between velocity dispersion and luminosity, which is somewhat higher than the canonical values of $\eta = \tfrac{1}{4}$ and $\eta = \tfrac{1}{3}$ for early and late-type galaxies, respectively, and leads to a stronger lensing effect by the halo. No detection of a lensing signal is made for the NFW model.
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http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.3708
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