1207.6223 (Ewan Cameron et al.)

On the Evidence for Cosmic Variation of the Fine Structure Constant: A Bayesian Reanalysis of the Quasar Dataset    [PDF]

Ewan Cameron, Tony Pettitt

We review the evidence behind recent claims of spatial variation in the fine structure constant deriving from observations on ground-based telescopes of ionic absorption lines in the light from distant quasars. To this end we expand upon previous non-Bayesian analyses limited by the assumptions of a strictly Normal and unbiased form for the "unexplained errors" of the benchmark quasar dataset. Through nested importance sampling and the method of power posteriors we evaluate and compare marginal likelihoods (or Bayes factors) for three competing hypotheses-(i) the strict null (no cosmic variation), (ii) the monopole null (a constant Earth-to-quasar offset only), and (iii) the monopole+dipole hypothesis (featuring a cosmic variation manifest to the Earth-bound observer as a North-South divergence)-under various alternative error terms. Our analysis reveals significant support for a skeptical interpretation in which the apparent dipole effect is driven solely by systematic errors of opposing sign inherent in measurements from the two telescopes employed to obtain the observations. In this context we highlight the importance of new observations along the equator of the alleged dipole (in addition to the new polar observations planned) in order to more strongly test the skeptical interpretation.

View original: http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.6223